Water FractalTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
44.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1105
· median 1105
· range 1105–1105
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1123
Q3 1385
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 29.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
